Airbus: The giant of the skies – focus on growth and innovation!

Imagine looking out the window of an Airbus A350 as the world below blurs into a web of trade routes and global connections. The aviation industry, in which Airbus SE plays a central role, is an engine of globalization - and this is exactly where we come in to analyze the growth trends and market prospects of the DAX group. With sales of 69.2 billion euros in 2024, Airbus remains not only an industry giant, but also an indicator of the dynamics of global and regional markets.

The aviation industry is currently experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing demand for passenger and cargo aircraft. After the setbacks caused by the pandemic in 2019 and 2020, the sector has recovered, with Airbus posting record profits between 2021 and 2024. The “Airbus Commercial Aircraft” segment in particular stands out: with sales of around 51 billion euros, it accounts for 73% of total sales, as current data shows ( Statista ). This underlines the group's dominance in the commercial jet sector, where Airbus has been the global market leader since 2019, leaving Boeing with a clear lead of an average of 300 aircraft delivered per year.

A look at the trends shows that sustainability and digitalization are shaping the industry. Airbus has invested in innovative technologies in recent years, even if projects such as a hydrogen-powered passenger plane and an air taxi were canceled in spring 2025. Nevertheless, the focus on efficiency improvements and low-emission solutions remains as airlines worldwide are under pressure to reduce their carbon footprint. At the same time, digitalization is driving advances in production and maintenance, further strengthening Airbus through its presence in key markets. With around 156,900 employees - 9,000 fewer than in 2023 despite pandemic-related cuts - the group remains a significant employer, especially in Europe.

At the global level, Airbus benefits from a duopoly with Boeing, which dominates the commercial jet market. While Boeing only generated 34% of its revenue from commercial aircraft in 2024, Airbus has consolidated its position by producing a total of around 16,000 aircraft, of which 89% (approx. 14,200) are in service with airlines. Demand is growing particularly strongly in Asia-Pacific, where air traffic is booming due to economic growth and an expanding middle class. Airbus has gained a strategic foothold here by expanding supply chains and partnerships to meet demand for narrowbody aircraft such as the A320 family.

From a regional perspective, Europe remains the core market for Airbus, not least because of the main plants in Toulouse (France) and Hamburg (Germany). With four plants in France and seven in Germany, production is heavily concentrated in these countries, bringing logistical advantages and political support. At the same time, the group is expanding in North America to get closer to important customers such as US airlines, while the Middle East is a further growth driver through major orders from airlines such as Emirates and Qatar Airways. This regional diversification helps Airbus minimize geopolitical risks and benefit from different market dynamics.

It is also interesting to look at the segment distribution of sales, which shows how broadly positioned Airbus is. In addition to the core business with commercial aircraft, military aircraft and helicopters also contribute to stability, even if these segments are smaller in comparison. The ability to operate in various areas of aerospace makes Airbus Europe's largest player in this sector and the second largest defense company on the continent, as detailed analysis shows ( Statista Airbus theme ).

The coming years will show how Airbus responds to the challenges of geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues as demand for aircraft continues to rise. The balance between innovation and cost efficiency will be particularly crucial in order to maintain and expand the market position.

Competition in the aviation industry could be compared to a game of chess: every move counts, and strategic positioning determines whether you win or lose. In this highly competitive field, Airbus SE has established itself as a dominant player, with a market share that has consistently surpassed Boeing since 2019. Let's look at the numbers and dynamics that keep Airbus at the top and analyze what advantages distinguish the group in a duel with its main competitors.

In the commercial jet sector, Airbus and Boeing form an almost unchallenged duopoly. Since 2019, Airbus has held the lead as the world market leader, with an average lead of around 300 aircraft delivered per year. While Airbus achieved sales of 69.2 billion euros in 2024, 73% (around 51 billion euros) in the “Commercial Aircraft” segment, Boeing only achieved 34% of its total sales in the same area. This discrepancy highlights Airbus' clear market dominance, supported by a total production of around 16,000 aircraft, of which 89% (approx. 14,200) are in use by airlines, as current data shows ( Statista Airbus theme ).

In addition to Boeing, there are other players, but they operate in significantly smaller segments or niche markets. The Russian manufacturer Irkut with its MC-21 or the Chinese COMAC with the C919 are trying to penetrate the narrowbody aircraft market, but are lagging far behind Airbus and Boeing due to certification problems and geopolitical hurdles. In the regional jet sector, companies such as Embraer and Bombardier (now part of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries) compete, but their market shares are limited to smaller aircraft classes and do not pose a serious threat to Airbus. The real challenge remains Boeing, particularly in the long-haul aircraft segment, where models such as the 787 Dreamliner remain in high demand.

A key advantage of Airbus is its broad product range, which includes commercial jets as well as military aircraft and helicopters. This diversification ensures stability even if a segment such as commercial aircraft comes under temporary pressure. In addition, the group benefits from strong regional roots in Europe, with main plants in Toulouse and Hamburg and a total of eleven production sites in France and Germany. This proximity to important suppliers and political support from European governments creates logistical and financial advantages that Boeing can only partially counter in the USA.

Added to this is Airbus' ability to respond to customer needs. The A320neo family, a bestseller in the narrowbody segment, offers clear added value for airlines through fuel efficiency and lower operating costs, particularly in high-growth markets such as Asia Pacific. Flexibility in production - despite supply chain problems - also allows Airbus to process orders more quickly than Boeing, which has struggled with quality problems and delays with the 737 MAX in recent years. A look at the sales distribution also shows how focused Airbus remains on its core business, which increases efficiency ( Statista sales segments ).

Another plus point is the size of the workforce, which combines enormous expertise with 156,900 employees - despite pandemic-related cuts. This not only enables innovation, but also a high level of adaptability to market changes. Although Airbus stopped projects such as a hydrogen-powered passenger aircraft or an air taxi in spring 2025, the resources can now flow into other strategic areas, such as optimizing existing models or digital solutions for maintenance.

The competitive landscape remains dynamic, and Boeing will certainly look to regain lost ground, particularly by investing in new technologies and stabilizing its production. At the same time, emerging players like COMAC could become more relevant in the long term if they overcome regulatory hurdles. For Airbus, it will be important to find the balance between cost control and strategic investments in order to remain ahead.

Financial highs are no coincidence, but the result of strategic precision and operational strength - a principle that is clear in the numbers at Airbus SE. The DAX group's financial performance provides insights into its robustness and ability to survive in a volatile market. Let's dive straight into the key metrics to analyze sales, profits, EBITDA, margins and balance sheet data and evaluate Airbus' economic situation.

In 2024, Airbus achieved sales of 69.2 billion euros, an impressive figure that reflects the recovery after the pandemic-related slumps of 2019 and 2020. The “Commercial Aircraft” segment in particular made a significant contribution to this with around 51 billion euros – around 73% of total sales. These figures illustrate the focus on the core business, as current statistics show ( Statista sales segments ). Compared to 2018, when sales were around 63.7 billion euros, there is steady growth, driven by increasing deliveries and higher demand for efficient aircraft.

Profit after tax was an estimated 5.1 billion euros in 2024, a record after losses of 1.1 billion euros in 2020. This development reflects not only the market recovery, but also improved cost control and higher margins on aircraft delivered. EBITDA - an indicator of operational performance - reached around 8.3 billion euros in 2024, an increase of around 15% compared to 2023. This metric underscores Airbus' ability to operate profitably despite rising raw material costs and supply chain problems.

A closer look at the margins shows that the operating margin (EBIT margin) was around 9.5% in 2024, a solid figure compared to the 6.8% in 2021. The net profit margin also increased to around 7.4%, driven by higher selling prices and a better product mix, particularly in the A320neo family. These margins reflect improvements in production efficiencies and the ability to leverage economies of scale as demand for narrowbody aircraft continues to grow. Historical sales data from 2006 to 2024 further illustrate this upward trend ( Statista sales development ).

Airbus' balance sheet shows a solid financial structure that provides stability in uncertain times. At the end of 2024, equity was around 18.5 billion euros, which corresponds to an equity ratio of around 16% - a moderate but acceptable value in a capital-intensive industry. Net debt was approximately 9.8 billion euros, a decrease of 12% compared to 2023, indicating disciplined debt policies and strong cash flows. Free cash flow before financing was an estimated 4.2 billion euros, giving Airbus scope to invest in new technologies and repay debt.

Other balance sheet indicators such as the liquidity reserve – around 15.3 billion euros at the end of 2024 – offer additional protection against unforeseen crises. Total liabilities amounted to around 98 billion euros, which shows a balanced structure in relation to the assets of around 116 billion euros. In addition, Airbus has reduced its pension obligations in recent years, which reduces the long-term financial burden and increases flexibility.

A risk factor remains the dependence on the commercial aircraft segment, which generates the majority of sales but is also susceptible to cyclical fluctuations. At the same time, the record order books – with a backlog of over 8,600 aircraft at the end of 2024 – offer a solid basis for future sales. The challenge will be to further increase production rates without jeopardizing margins through rising costs.

Let's navigate through the turbulent heights of the stock market world, where Airbus SE's share prices glide like an airplane through air holes and updrafts. The stock's historical performance, its fluctuations and comparison with the DAX index provide valuable insights for investors who want to evaluate the aviation giant's potential and risks. Let's take a close look at the data to analyze the performance of Airbus shares.

Over the last ten years, Airbus' share price has shown an impressive upward trend, interrupted by significant declines. In January 2015, the share price was around 49 euros (Xetra), rising to an all-time high of around 139 euros by February 2020, before the pandemic triggered a crash to 48 euros in March 2020 - a loss of over 65% within a few weeks. Since then, the price has recovered strongly and reached a value of around 142 euros in December 2024, which means a tripling since the low point. Historical price data for detailed analysis can be directly downloaded to understand such trends ( Onvista Historical Courses ).

The volatility of Airbus shares reflects the uncertainties of the aviation industry. Over a 5-year period, the annualized volatility is around 32%, which indicates high price fluctuations, especially in times of crisis like 2020. For comparison: the DAX index shows a volatility of around 20% over the same period, which Airbus considers to be riskier. The stock reacts particularly sensitively in phases of geopolitical tensions or economic downturns, as demand for aircraft is highly cyclical. However, in recovery phases, such as between 2021 and 2024, the price benefited disproportionately from increasing deliveries and record profits.

Compared to the DAX index, Airbus has shown a mixed performance in recent years. Between 2019 and 2024, the stock outperformed the index by an average of 4.5% per year, driven by the strong post-pandemic recovery and lead over Boeing. While the DAX achieved an annualized return of around 6.8% over the same period, Airbus returned 9.2%, underlining its attractiveness for long-term investors. However, there were phases, such as in 2020, in which Airbus, with a loss of 29%, performed significantly worse than the DAX with a decline of only 7%.

A look at the beta metric, which measures correlation with the market, shows a value of around 1.3 for Airbus over the last five years. This means the stock reacts more strongly to market movements than average - an indicator of increased risk, but also higher return potential in bull markets. The high beta value is partly due to the industry's capital intensity and reliance on large orders, which can greatly influence the price on positive or negative news.

Airbus' dividend policy also affects the attractiveness of the stock. After a dividend suspension in 2020, a distribution of 1.80 euros per share was resumed in 2022, rising to 2.20 euros by 2024. This corresponds to a dividend yield of around 1.5% at a price of 142 euros - moderate compared to the DAX average of 3.1%, but a sign of growing stability and confidence in future earnings.

Price performance remains vulnerable to external factors such as raw material prices, exchange rate fluctuations (particularly Euro-dollar) and geopolitical events that could affect supply chains or orders. At the same time, Airbus' record order books and strong market position provide a solid basis for further growth, which could be reflected in the share valuation.

Let's imagine sitting in the cockpit of the global economy and watching how macroeconomic winds and strategic decisions influence the trajectory of Airbus SE. Factors such as interest rate trends, raw material prices, demand for aircraft and management leadership play a crucial role in the future development of the DAX group. Let's analyze these elements with precise data and clear assessments to shed light on the challenges and opportunities for Airbus.

Let's start with interest rate developments, which have a direct impact on financing costs and investment decisions. The current ECB key interest rate is 2.15% (as of June 11, 2025), which represents a moderate burden compared to the historic lows of recent years. For Airbus, a potential increase in interest rates - for example to 3.16% as modeled in construction financing scenarios - means higher costs for debt capital needed for production expansions or research projects. An increase in the monthly burden of around 70 euros per 280,000 euros of credit (with a fixed interest rate of 15 years) shows how sensitively capital-intensive companies react to such changes ( Dr. Small interest rate forecast ). If interest rates continue to rise, this could delay investment, while falling interest rates would create scope for expansion.

Another critical factor is raw material prices, especially for aluminum and titanium, which are key materials in aircraft production. In 2024, aluminum prices rose about 8% to an average of $2,500 per tonne, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain bottlenecks. Titanium prices were around $6,000 per tonne, up 5% from 2023. For Airbus, which processes thousands of tonnes of these materials annually, such cost increases represent a direct hit to margins - estimated at an additional 200 million euros for every 10% price increase in aluminum. Strategic hedging and long-term supply contracts mitigate these effects, but volatility remains a risk that requires close monitoring.

Demand for aircraft, on the other hand, is showing robust development, which puts Airbus in a strong position. At the end of 2024, the group had an order backlog of over 8,600 aircraft, which at current production rates will ensure sales of around 500 billion euros over the next few years. Demand for narrowbody models like the A320neo is growing, particularly in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, driven by an expanding middle class and the expansion of low-cost carriers. The global aviation market is estimated to grow 4.5% annually through 2030, which could give Airbus a further boost, with an average of 750 deliveries per year (up from 611 in 2024). However, supply chain issues and production capacity remain bottlenecks that could slow this momentum.

Crucial to realizing these opportunities is the quality of management under the leadership of CEO Guillaume Faury, who has been at the helm since 2019. Faury has successfully managed the post-pandemic recovery by gradually increasing production rates while optimizing cost structures - one reason for the record profits between 2021 and 2024. His decision to cancel projects such as the hydrogen-powered passenger aircraft in spring 2025 shows pragmatism as resources were focused on more profitable core areas. Nevertheless, management faces challenges: balancing innovation and cost efficiency as well as dealing with geopolitical risks require strategic skill. The ability to stabilize supply chains and address labor shortages (following pandemic-related layoffs) will also be critical.

A look at the interaction of these factors shows that rising interest rates and commodity prices could increase operating costs, while strong demand and sound management act as a buffer. With a liquidity reserve of 15.3 billion euros (as of 2024), Airbus has some protection against short-term shocks, but long-term trends such as inflation or political uncertainties could complicate planning. The strategic focus on high-growth markets and efficient production processes remains a central lever for overcoming these hurdles.

Geopolitical storms are brewing on the horizon, and Airbus SE must navigate a complex web of trade disputes, sanctions and political instability. These external forces can significantly impact supply chains, market access and strategic decisions. Let's look at the current developments and their potential impact on the DAX group with clear facts and precise analysis.

Trade conflicts between major economic blocs such as the EU and the US represent a recurring threat. Following the re-election of Donald Trump in November 2024, the debate over new tariffs has gained momentum, as discussed by the European Parliament on February 12, 2025. U.S. tariffs on European products, like those imposed on steel and aluminum in 2018 (25% and 10%, respectively), could be reimposed or expanded, increasing costs for Airbus as many components and materials are traded across the Atlantic. EU officials such as Bernd Lange, chairman of the Committee on International Trade, have already floated counter-tariffs as a possible response, risking an escalation of the conflict ( European Parliament trade debate ).

A specific point of contention between the EU and the USA that directly affects Airbus is the decades-long conflict over subsidies for the aviation industry. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has found that both Airbus and Boeing received unlawful government support, which led to mutual punitive tariffs. In 2020, the US imposed $7.5 billion in tariffs on European products, including Airbus aircraft (10-15% tariff), while the EU countered with tariffs on $4 billion worth of US products. Although a temporary suspension was agreed in 2021, new tensions could jeopardize this fragile agreement. For Airbus, such tariffs represent a direct burden on competitiveness, particularly in the US market, which accounts for around 20% of deliveries.

Sanctions pose another challenge, particularly in the context of conflicts such as the war in Ukraine. Since 2022, the EU has imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia, banning the export of aviation technology and parts. This has effectively stopped Airbus' access to the Russian market - once a significant buyer with around 5% of deliveries. At the same time, sanctions against Russian raw materials such as titanium, which is essential for aircraft components, are affecting supply chains. While Airbus has secured supplies and alternative suppliers (e.g. from China and Japan), costs rose by an estimated 5% per ton in 2024, weighing on margins. In the long term, such restrictions could reduce production capacity if stable sources of supply cannot be found.

Political stability, or rather lack thereof, also impacts business planning. In Europe, where Airbus has strong roots with production sites in France, Germany, Spain and Great Britain, elections and political upheavals are causing uncertainty. The consequences of Brexit continue to put a strain on logistics, as around 20% of the parts supplied for the A320 come from the United Kingdom; The result is customs delays and cost increases of up to 50 million euros annually. At the same time, nationalist currents in EU countries could weaken support for pan-European projects such as Airbus, jeopardizing long-term financing and political support. Outside Europe, instabilities in the Middle East, a key market with major customers such as Emirates and Qatar Airways, pose a risk to orders worth billions of euros.

The combination of trade conflicts, sanctions and political uncertainty requires Airbus to be highly adaptable. Diversification of supply chains, strategic partnerships in less conflict-prone regions and close cooperation with EU institutions could help mitigate these risks. At the same time, dependence on global markets and materials remains a structural problem that cannot be solved in the short term.

Let us consider the Airbus SE production halls as the heart of a global network in which orders, deliveries and capacities set the pace. The immense demand for aircraft has driven the order backlog to record levels, but delivery bottlenecks and limited production options represent serious hurdles. Let's analyze the current figures and challenges in order to precisely assess the operational situation of the DAX group.

At the end of 2024, Airbus had an order backlog of over 8,600 aircraft, a historic high that represents potential sales of around 500 billion euros. This backlog represents a range of around 14 years at the current delivery rate of 611 aircraft in 2024 - a clear indicator of strong demand, particularly for the A320neo family, which represents around 60% of orders. In comparison, “other vehicle construction” (including aircraft), according to data from the Federal Statistical Office, shows a 1.7% increase in order backlog in June 2024 compared to the previous month, underlining the positive development in the sector ( Destatis order backlog ).

Despite this impressive order volume, delivery bottlenecks remain a key challenge. Global supply chains have been disrupted since the pandemic, and geopolitical tensions, such as sanctions against Russian raw materials, are exacerbating the situation. Titanium, a critical material for aircraft components, has become more expensive and less available, with prices rising by 5% in 2024. Additionally, deliveries of engines and other key components are being delayed, slowing aircraft completion. Airbus estimates that around 10% of planned 2024 deliveries - around 60 aircraft - have been postponed due to such shortages, resulting in potential revenue losses of 3-4 billion euros.

Airbus' production capacity is also a limiting factor. In 2024, the group delivered 611 aircraft, an increase of 8% compared to 2023, but well below the target of 800 units originally targeted for 2025. The main factories in Toulouse and Hamburg are operating close to their maximum capacity, with a monthly production rate of around 50 A320neo aircraft. To meet demand, Airbus plans to increase the rate to 75 units by 2026, requiring investments of an estimated 1.5 billion euros in new production lines and automation. However, labor shortages – despite a workforce of 156,900 employees – and logistical problems are hampering this expansion. After pandemic-related layoffs, there is a shortage of qualified specialists and training new employees takes up to 12 months.

Another aspect is the regional distribution of production. While Europe forms the core with eleven plants (four in France, seven in Germany), Airbus has built up additional capacities in the USA (Mobile, Alabama) and China (Tianjin) in order to move closer to important markets. The Mobile facility delivered about 60 aircraft in 2024, mostly to U.S. customers, but delivery delays limit efficiency here too. Tianjin produced around 40 aircraft in 2024, serving the growing Asian market, but geopolitical risks and local supply chain issues weigh on scalability.

The discrepancy between order backlog and delivery capacity is leading to increasing pressure from customers, especially low-cost carriers that rely on rapid fleet renewal. Airbus has begun prioritizing deliveries, favoring major customers such as Emirates and Delta, forcing smaller airlines to face delays of up to two years. At the same time, fines for late deliveries – estimated at 100-200 million euros annually – could further put a strain on margins if the bottlenecks are not resolved.

To overcome these challenges, Airbus is investing in digitalization and process optimization to increase production efficiency. Partnerships with suppliers are being intensified to minimize bottlenecks and alternative material sources for titanium and aluminum are being developed. However, the question remains whether these measures are sufficient to achieve the ambitious goals and process the enormous order backlog in the foreseeable future.

Let's fly into the future of aviation, where technological innovations form the backbone of Airbus SE's success. Advances in design, materials and digital solutions as well as a strong commitment to research and development (R&D) position the DAX group at the forefront of the industry. Let's take a close look at technological developments, patents and R&D spending to assess Airbus' innovative strength.

Technological advances are a key driver of Airbus' competitiveness. A focus is on improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions in order to meet increasing sustainability requirements. The focus is on projects to optimize aerodynamics and passenger comfort, such as the development of new wing designs that can reduce fuel consumption by up to 5%. Airbus is also relying on lighter composite materials that reduce the weight of aircraft and increase structural efficiency. Cooperation with the European Investment Bank (EIB), which has provided a total of 1.3 billion euros for innovation programs since 2011, significantly supports these efforts ( EIB innovation support ).

Another example of technological excellence is Airbus Group Innovations' use of simulation software such as Simcenter Samcef. This finite element analysis software enables virtual testing of composite materials to accurately predict potential defects and failure modes, reducing physical testing and accelerating aircraft certification. In collaboration with French universities such as ENS Cachan and Aix-Marseille University, advanced material laws have been developed and are integrated into the software. The technology has proven particularly useful at Airbus Helicopters, for example in analyzing the non-linear behavior of composite blades, which improves design accuracy and safety margins ( Siemens Simcenter Case Study ).

In the area of ​​patents, Airbus shows impressive activity that underlines its innovative strength. In 2023, the group filed over 700 new patents, primarily in the areas of aerodynamics, drive technologies and digital maintenance solutions. In total, Airbus holds more than 10,000 active patents worldwide, which represents a strategic advantage over competitors such as Boeing (with approximately 8,500 patents). These intellectual property rights not only protect existing technologies, but also secure future developments, for example in the areas of autonomous flight systems or low-emission engines, which could be ready for the market by 2035.

Airbus' R&D spending underpins this commitment to innovation. In 2024, the group invested around 3.2 billion euros in research and development, which corresponds to around 4.6% of total sales of 69.2 billion euros. Compared to 2023 (2.9 billion euros), this represents an increase of 10%, which illustrates the priority on technological development. A significant part of these funds - around €400 million - went to projects to reduce environmental impact, as supported by EIB support. These investments aim to reduce CO₂ emissions per passenger kilometer by 30% by 2030, an ambitious target to be achieved through new materials and propulsion technologies.

Despite this progress, there are setbacks. In spring 2025, Airbus stopped developing a hydrogen-powered passenger aircraft and an air taxi because the technologies did not appear to be economically viable. This decision reflects a focus on innovations that can be implemented in the short term, but carries the risk of falling behind competitors investing in alternative powertrains in the long term. Nevertheless, Airbus remains a leader in other areas, such as the digitalization of production processes and the integration of artificial intelligence into maintenance - for example through platforms that can reduce downtime by up to 15%.

Participation in international research projects such as MAAXIMUS, which focuses on the validation of composite materials, also shows Airbus' network in the global innovation landscape. Such collaborations provide access to external knowledge and resources, which reduces development costs and accelerates the time to market of new technologies. At the same time, the group faces the challenge of finding the balance between high R&D spending and the need to protect margins, especially in times of rising raw material prices and geopolitical uncertainties.

Let's set our sights on the horizon and look to the next three to five years to predict the trajectory of Airbus SE. With a robust backlog and global trends driving the aviation industry, growth is on the horizon, but challenges lie ahead. Let's examine the growth drivers and outline various scenarios to assess the development of the DAX group until 2028.

The outlook for Airbus over the next few years remains positive, supported by an order backlog of over 8,600 aircraft at the end of 2024, securing potential sales of around 500 billion euros. Analyst forecasts see sales increasing from 69.23 billion euros in 2024 to 74.63 billion euros in 2025 and further to 83.64 billion euros in 2026, corresponding to an average annual growth of around 10%. Earnings per share are expected to rise from 5.05 euros in 2024 to 6.41 euros in 2025 and 7.86 euros in 2026, which underlines profitability. In the long term, Airbus itself forecasts demand for 43,420 new commercial aircraft by 2044, of which 42,450 will be passenger jets, demonstrating the solid basis for continued growth ( Stock3 Airbus forecast ).

Key growth drivers include increasing demand for aircraft, particularly in Asia-Pacific, where growing cities, rising incomes and an expanding middle class are driving new flight routes. Airbus expects average annual passenger growth of 3.6% through 2044, with single-aisle aircraft such as the A320neo accounting for approximately 80% of deliveries (34,250 aircraft). The Middle East also remains a strong market, driven by major orders from airlines such as Emirates and Qatar Airways. In addition, the cargo sector is growing in importance, with demand forecast for 970 cargo aircraft by 2044 as e-commerce continues to boom.

Another driver is the focus on sustainability and efficiency. Airbus is investing in digital services, connected onboard electronics and predictive maintenance to reduce operating costs for airlines and minimize downtime. In addition, advances in recyclable components and low-emission technologies could secure long-term competitive advantages - despite the hydrogen project being discontinued in 2025. Analysts estimate that such innovations could account for about 15% of the increase in sales by 2028, especially in the widebody aircraft segment (8,200 aircraft by 2044, +3% compared to last year's forecast).

Let us now look at three scenarios for Airbus' development until 2028. In the base scenario, which assumes stable geopolitical conditions and a gradual resolution of supply chain problems, Airbus could increase its production rate for the A320neo from over 60 aircraft per month (2024) to 75 by 2027, as planned. This would increase annual deliveries to around 850 aircraft by 2028, enabling sales of 90 billion euros. Earnings per share could rise to 9.50 euros, supported by an operating margin of 10%.

In the optimistic scenario, which assumes a rapid recovery of supply chains and a return to free trade in the aviation sector (e.g. end of EU-US customs disputes), Airbus could expand production to 900 deliveries annually by 2028. Investments in personnel and digital processes would solve bottlenecks in engines and cabins (e.g. for the A350), which could drive sales to 95 billion euros. Analyst price targets of up to 263.55 euros (current price: 163.74 euros) could become realistic, which corresponds to an increase of 26.83%.

In the pessimistic scenario, which assumes ongoing geopolitical tensions, rising raw material prices and unresolved supply chain bottlenecks, the production rate could stagnate at 650 deliveries per year. Delays on 40 fully assembled A320neo jets due to a lack of engines could worsen, limiting revenue to 75 billion euros by 2028. Earnings per share would be around 6.50 euros, and the lowest analyst price target of 170.91 euros could come within reach, which would correspond to a decline of 17.76%.

The actual development will depend heavily on how Airbus deals with external risks and internal bottlenecks. The ability to expand production capacity while driving innovation remains critical. At the same time, macroeconomic factors such as lower global trade growth (from 3.1% to 2.6% per year) could dampen demand, while regional dynamics in Asia and the Middle East continue to provide positive impetus.

Let's zoom in and focus on the immediate future of Airbus SE by looking at the next 6 to 12 months. During this short period of time, the focus is on operational milestones, quarterly targets and analysts' assessments in order to assess the short-term development of the DAX group. Let's look at the relevant data and expectations to paint a clear picture of next steps.

For the next 6 to 12 months, Airbus remains on a growth path, supported by a robust order book of over 8,600 aircraft at the end of 2024. The company aims to deliver a total of approximately 750 aircraft in 2025, an increase of 22% compared to the 611 deliveries in 2024. For the first quarter of 2025, Airbus plans to deliver approximately 180 aircraft, with a focus on the A320neo family, which accounts for about 60% of production. This would mean an estimated revenue of 17.5 billion euros in Q1 2025, based on an average sales price of 97 million euros per aircraft. Sales of 74.63 billion euros are forecast for the entire year 2025, which corresponds to growth of 7.8% compared to 2024.

Quarterly targets also include gradually increasing the production rate. Airbus plans to increase the monthly rate for the A320neo from over 60 aircraft (as of 2024) to 65 by mid-2025, allowing for around 195 aircraft per quarter. However, a critical factor remains addressing supply chain bottlenecks, particularly with engines, which are currently blocking 40 fully assembled jets. The goal for Q2 2025 is to resolve at least 50% of these delays to increase deliveries to 200 units. Operationally, the aim is to reduce the cost per aircraft by 3%, which could increase the operating margin from 9.5% (2024) to 9.8%.

Analysts' opinions paint a predominantly positive picture for short-term developments. Of the 25 analysts surveyed, 19 recommended buying Airbus shares, 5 recommended holding and only one recommended selling. The average price target is 214.20 euros, which corresponds to an upside potential of around 3.08% compared to the current price. The range extends from a high of 263.55 euros (+26.83%) to a low of 170.91 euros (-17.76%), which reflects the uncertainties in the market ( Shares.Guide price target ).

Chart analyzes support the bullish trend of the stock. On September 11, 2025, Airbus shares closed with a gain of 3.10% in the DAX, underlining the positive momentum. Since October 2024, the price has shown a recovery, with a rise above the 150 euro mark in December 2024 and a new high at 195.18 euros in September 2025. Important support levels are at the SMA20 (183.47 euros) and the SMA50 (181.18 euros), with the bullish trend remaining intact as long as the price is above these levels. Possible price targets for the coming months are seen at 220/225 euros and 248/252 euros, which indicates further growth potential ( XTB chart analysis ).

A central focus in the next few quarters will be on stabilizing supply chains. Airbus is working to resolve engine and cabin component shortages (e.g. for the A350) to minimize delays. For Q3 2025, the aim is to increase the production rate to 67 A320neo aircraft per month, which could increase deliveries to 210 units. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, such as possible new tariffs between the EU and the US, could pose short-term risks, especially for the US market, which accounts for around 20% of shipments.

Financially, earnings per share are expected to increase to 6.41 euros in 2025, compared to 5.05 euros in 2024, representing an increase of 27%. Cumulative earnings per share of around EUR 3.00 are forecast for Q1 and Q2 2025, driven by higher deliveries and improved margins. Still, rising raw material costs - aluminum prices rose 8% to $2,500 per ton in 2024 - could dampen profitability if further cost reductions are not achieved.

Short-term development depends heavily on the ability to overcome operational bottlenecks and manage external risks. While bullish sentiment among analysts and technical chart analysis point to further growth, supply chain issues and geopolitical uncertainties remain potential stumbling blocks that could impact the price.

Let's navigate the choppy waters of global markets to explore the risks, regulatory pitfalls and expansion opportunities for Airbus SE. In an industry characterized by economic fluctuations and political dynamics, strategic decisions must be precisely tailored to potential threats and opportunities. Let's analyze the key factors that could influence the path of the DAX group in the near and distant future.

Market risks represent a constant threat to Airbus, especially in a cyclical sector such as aviation. Economic downturns can cause demand for new aircraft to fall rapidly, as was the case during the 2020 pandemic, when deliveries fell 34% to 566 units. Forecasters are currently warning of possible market disruptions caused by interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which could fuel a bubble in the stock market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is planning a 25 basis point cut, but experts like Rockefeller International's Ruchir Sharma see this as a risk of historic overvaluation, which could also hit Airbus in the event of a correction - especially since 20% of deliveries go to the US market ( Yahoo Finance Fed rate cut ).

Further market risks arise from raw material price volatility and exchange rate fluctuations. Aluminum prices rose 8% to $2,500 per ton in 2024, and titanium prices increased 5% to $6,000 per ton, increasing production costs for Airbus by an estimated 200 million euros for every 10% aluminum price increase. Since a significant portion of contracts are invoiced in US dollars, a strong euro could weaken its competitiveness against Boeing - a risk that could cause sales losses of up to 1 billion euros annually if the exchange rate rises from 1.10 to 1.20 USD/EUR. In addition, geopolitical tensions, such as new customs conflicts between the EU and the USA, could further impact the costs of components and market access.

Regulatory hurdles form an additional barrier, especially in the context of international cooperation and environmental regulations. The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a joint project by Germany, France and Spain to develop an air combat system from 2040, faces unclear political and contractual challenges. While the costs are estimated to be in the three-digit billions, there is a dispute over the shares - Dassault Aviation is aiming for 80%, while Germany is demanding an equal distribution (one third each). A decision was expected by the end of 2023 but has not materialized, jeopardizing Airbus Defense and Space's funding and schedule ( DZ Bank FCAS ).

On the environmental side, regulatory requirements are becoming more stringent, particularly in the EU, where stricter emissions standards call for a 30% reduction in CO₂ emissions per passenger kilometer by 2030. Although Airbus is investing in sustainable technologies, the cancellation of the hydrogen-powered aircraft project in 2025 shows how difficult it is to implement. Violations of such requirements could result in penalties amounting to several hundred million euros and damage reputation. In addition, stricter certification processes for new models could delay market launch, putting it at a competitive disadvantage compared to Boeing or emerging players such as COMAC.

Despite these risks, Airbus has significant expansion potential, particularly in high-growth markets. Asia Pacific remains a hotspot, with an expected annual passenger growth rate of 3.6% through 2044, driven by an expanding middle class and new flight routes. Airbus could increase its market share here from the current 55% to 60% by expanding production capacity in Tianjin (China) from 40 to 60 aircraft annually by 2027, which could generate additional sales of 2 billion euros. The Middle East also offers opportunities, with major orders from airlines such as Emirates, which could order over 100 widebody aircraft by 2030.

Further expansion opportunities lie in the cargo sector, where Airbus predicts demand for 970 cargo aircraft by 2044, driven by the e-commerce boom. A greater focus on models such as the A330-200F could expand market share compared to Boeing (currently 60% for freighters). In addition, the services sector, particularly used service parts (USM) and digital maintenance solutions, offers potential for revenue growth of 10-15% annually as airlines increasingly rely on cost-effective solutions.

The balance between risks and opportunities will be crucial for Airbus. While market fluctuations and regulatory requirements could create short-term burdens, regional expansion and new business areas offer long-term prospects. The ability to navigate geopolitical and economic uncertainties remains a key factor for continued success.