Time to buy the dip and Bitcoin’s Golden Cross.”

Is it time to “buy The Dip?”The price broke its five-day losing streak as it rose 0.25% to 4470 on Monday, 1.00% above its 50-day moving average. As we chart in the commentary below, the 50-day moving average has supported the S&P 500 on nine different occasions over the last year. We have no reason to doubt the power of the trading algorithms this time, but we must consider that a significant break in the moving average could bring the 200-day moving average at 4086 into play.

Markets open slightly higher this morning as bonds give up some of yesterday's gains. At 8:30 a.m. ET provides an update on inflation. Monthly headline figures are expected to fall 0.1% from the previous month's 0.5%.

What can be seen today

Business

• 6:00 Uhr ET: , August (99,0 erwartet, 99,7 im Vormonat)
• 8:30 Uhr ET: Realer durchschnittlicher Wochenverdienst, im Jahresvergleich, August (-0,9 % im Vormonat)
• 8:30 Uhr ET: Verbraucherpreisindex, im Monatsvergleich, August (0,4 % erwartet, 0,5 % im Juli)
• 8:30 Uhr ET: , im Monatsvergleich, August (0,3 % erwartet, 0,3 % im Juli)
• 8:30 Uhr ET: , Jahr für Jahr, August (5,3 % erwartet, 5,4 % im Juli)
• 8:30 Uhr ET: , im Jahresvergleich (August (4,2 % erwartet, 4,3 % im August)

Merits

• 7:30 Uhr ET: Brennstoffzellen-Energie (NASDAQ:) wird voraussichtlich bereinigte Verluste von 6 Cent pro Aktie bei einem Umsatz von 20,63 Millionen US-Dollar melden

policy

• Gary Gensler, Vorsitzender der US-Börsenaufsichtsbehörde ist vor dem Senat um 10 Uhr ET für eine Aufsichtsanhörung. Es wird erwartet, dass seine Pläne für Kryptowährung ein Schlüsselthema sein werden, wobei Gensler für mehr Macht plädieren wird, um neue Verbraucherschutzmaßnahmen für Kryptomärkte hinzuzufügen.
• Heute ist der letzte Tag der Rückrufwahl in Kalifornien. Die Abstimmung – per Post durchgeführt – endet um 20:00 Uhr PT mit Umfrageergebnissen Kaliforniens Gouverneur Gavin Newsom in einer starken Position, um den Rückrufversuch zu überleben.
• Die Ausschuss für Wege und Mittel des US-Repräsentantenhauses wird um 9:00 Uhr ET formell über den Plan der Demokraten für Steuererhöhungen debattieren. Inzwischen, US-Außenminister Antony Blinken wird nach einer umstrittenen ersten Runde gestern um 10:00 Uhr ET einem zweiten Tag der Befragung auf dem Capitol Hill gegenüberstehen.

Will the 50-day moving average save the day?

Natural gas burns!

As we show below, the price of has risen sharply in recent months and is at the upper limit of its 10-year range. Will it break higher or fall back like it did in 2014 and late 2018 when it was at similar levels?

Inflation and confidence

The New York Fed uses its latest consumer expectations survey to show the role rising inflation expectations are playing in declining confidence. The chart below shows that expected inflation is now above 5% and will rise. At the same time, the expected wage growth is stable/falling by 2.5%. As a result, consumers expect a 2.64% loss in purchasing power next year (red line).

NY Fed Verbraucherlohn-/Inflationserwartungen

Will the market bottom on September 21st?

The chart below shows the incredible regularity of the market over the last four months. As shown, every 20 days the S&P 500 tends to fall for a few days, bottom out, and then rise back to previous highs. If the cycle happens again this month, we should be on September 21st. expect a market low. The main reason for this is the monthly expiry times of the options, which fall around the market lows. There is a lack of liquidity, so options trades on the days surrounding the expiration date provide direction.

The golden cross of Bitcoin

After a hit earlier this year, the increase came to a head in August“Golden Cross”the 50 dma and 200 dma moving averages. needs to hold support at these levels and turn higher to confirm the “bullish signal”. If so, it would suggest that a retrace towards $60,000 is likely.

BTC/USD daily chart

In a recent CNBC interview, Cathy Wood, CEO of ARK Investments, stated that she expects the price of Bitcoin to exceed $500,000 in the next five years.

“If we are right and companies continue to diversify their money into cryptocurrencies and institutional investors start allocating 5% of their funds to cryptocurrencies... We believe that [bitcoin’s] price will increase tenfold from what it is today.”

Wood also expressed her confidence in Ether“has increased dramatically”when the blockchain begins its transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.

When asked by CNBC about her choice if she were to invest in just one cryptocurrency, Wood said she would allocate 60% to Bitcoin and 40% to Ether.

Reviews are “crazy”

Markets in turmoil

Preparing for CPI

Tuesday's CPI is the big market event of the week. With the Fed making significant progress toward its employment target, inflation concerns are coming to the fore. While the Fed laid out a tapering timeline in the WSJ last week, a high CPI could accelerate that timeline. The expectations for the monthly rate are 0.4%, slightly below the 0.5% in the previous month. Thursday’s report is also important this week. Will the recent loss of confidence be felt by retailers? Speaking of confidence, that will come out on Friday.

The next Fed meeting is next Tuesday and Wednesday. Later this week, most Fed members will enter the media blackout period.

Rent inflation

30% of the CPI index is based on “shelter” costs, ie real and imputed rental prices. The chart below should be a warning that tomorrow's CPI report may be hotter than expected. Luckily, the BLS uses questionable means to calculate rent. In BLS's housing inflation measure, Hypothetical Bull***, we analyze "shelter" costs. Our conclusion:“If either OER or rental prices show some correlation with reality, the CPI could not only continue to run hot, but also rise from elevated levels.However, when looking at historical BLS data, it appears that shelter prices are not changing noticeably from current levels.”