Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin rally to $250,000 by end of 2025 due to renewed Fed monetary policy”

Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin rally to $250,000 by end of 2025 due to renewed Fed monetary policy”

Bitcoin on the way to $250,000 by the end of 2025: Arthur Hayes’ forecast

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, shared his bullish prediction about Bitcoin on Wednesday. He predicts that the digital currency could rise to $250,000 by the end of 2025. This assessment is based on the assumption that Scott Bessent, who served as Treasury Secretary under Donald Trump, will persuade Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to ease monetary policy to support the US government.

In a recent essay published on his blog, Hayes suggested that Powell could give in to growing fiscal pressure and reimpose quantitative easing. He criticized that the current financial mathematics would no longer be viable if the Federal Reserve did not act.

Arthur Hayes is closely monitoring political developments in the USA, particularly Trump's influence on economic policy. In his essay, he reflected on the various views circulating about Trump's potentially chaotic actions. Some analysts fear that Trump could destabilize everything, while others argue that he is seriously trying to reform the US economic and military structures. Hayes emphasizes that what ultimately matters for investors is how much fiat currency is circulating in the system.

Trading rules and the influence on the markets

Hayes highlights that both Republicans and Democrats want to change global trade rules, which has been a key agenda since Trump's presidency. Joe Biden continued this direction, including China's access to US markets. In this context, Hayes mentions that the previous import strategy, which favored China, is damaging the US's debt situation and trade balance in the long term.

In particular, Hayes emphasizes that after withdrawing investments from countries like China, the US needs a financial partner to finance the debt. Scott Bessent, the current Treasury Secretary, plans to reduce U.S. deficits by 2028 while U.S. credit continues to rise every year. Hayes warns that interest payments will grow exponentially in the coming years.

The role of the Federal Reserve

Hayes argues that there is a mismatch between inflation and interest rates on the government bonds needed to finance the debt. The average interest rate on the $36 trillion debt is just 3.282%, while investors should demand at least 5% returns if economic forecasts show these levels.

He points out that banks are constrained by regulations, making it difficult for them to buy government bonds. This situation could force the Federal Reserve to increase its balance sheet, especially since the 2% inflation target appears unrealistic.

Looking back at the past and Bitcoin’s future

Hayes sees parallels between the current situation and 2008 to 2010. At that time, as the Federal Reserve began quantitative easing, gold rose while stock markets stagnated. He extrapolates this pattern to Bitcoin and argues that digital assets that do not rely on government support will also soon respond to the money glut.

Overall, Hayes estimates that Bitcoin could soon rise to $76,500 and speculates that the $250,000 mark can be reached by the end of 2025 as stock markets remain under pressure. His belief in Bitcoin remains unshakable as he is convinced that the technology remains stable and the main theme will be inflation and the supply of fiat currency.

This assessment suggests that Hayes expects a bearish trend for traditional financial systems and a parallel bullish move for Bitcoin.